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HOME > MARKET RESEARCH REPORTS >
Reptrospective Solar Panel PVs: A Fits Market Investment Opportunities in South East England Report
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Published:
October 2010 |
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An investment window of opportunity has emerged that will be revised in April 2012. The retrofit solar PV installation of up to 4KW has been determined at a Feed in Tariff (FIT) of 41.3p per KWh for installations made up to 31/3/2012, and this will last for a 25 year duration, and the level has also been index linked. In addition there is an export tariff of 3p per KWh. The household with the installation also makes savings on its electricity bills, because generating electricity means the household does not have to buy as much electricity from the energy supplier.
This report has detailed market analysis including the orientation of domestic roofs, segmented between detached, semi-detached and terraced housing. Moreover, each report contains detailed costings on installations by roof orientation (south west, south-south west, south, south-south east and south east, and those less suitable). The reports identify the market size, by orientation and type of house and provide analysis of the pay back periods and returns on investment for commercial investors specific to the area and taking account of panel degredation, system losses, irradiation, temperature loss etc.
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Purchase the South East of England regional report at £7,500 and receive a second regional report at the reduced price of £5,000*.
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Contents:
Table of Contents
1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1
2. BACKGROUND 3
Why does the market opportunity exist? 3
What are Feed In Tariffs? 3
Why have Feed in Tariffs been introduced in the UK? 3
The European experience 3
To what do FITs apply? 4
Deemed export 5
The tariffs for retrofit solar PV panels 5
Are there enough registered MCS installers? 6
Do solar panels work in the UK? 6
What affects the efficiency of the solar panel? 6
Will FITs be subject to the government cutbacks? 7
3. MARKET & INDUSTRY TO DATE 8
3.1 What Has Happened So Far? 8
3.2 Industry Participants 8
Home Sun 8
Isis Solar 8
A Shade Greener 9
Tesco 9
Green Energy Power Solutions 9
British Gas 9
3.3 Market Issues 9
What about ownership? 9
Will it affect a further house sale? 9
4. RESIDENTIAL ENERGY USAGE 10
Smart meters 10
Where does all the electricity go and why is use now declining? 11
The South East of England residential electricity usage is declining 12
Is the reduction sustainable? 12
Conclusion 12
5. THE HOUSING BASE 13
The total stock and breakdown 13
The detached housing analysis 14
The semi detached housing analysis 15
The terraced housing analysis 16
6. SYSTEM COSTS AND ASSUMPTIONS 17
Installation costs 17
Assumptions 17
7. THE COSTED OPPORTUNITY 19
7.1 Detached Housing Opportunity 19
Base case 1 19
No inflation 19
The positive effect of inflation 20
The effect of further fuel price inflation 20
The effect of inflation increasing 20
Base case 2 22
The potential of smart meters to change day time usage statistics 23
Higher inflation 24
7.2 Semi Detached Housing Opportunity 26
Base case 26
With realistic inflation 27
If inflation increases 28
7.3 The Total 3.3KW Installation Market Opportunity 29
Conclusion 31
7.4 The Future of FITs 32
FITs between 1/4/2012 and 31/3/2013 32
FITs between 1/4/2013 and 31/3/2014 35
7.5 Terraced Housing Opportunity 36
Base case 36
With realistic inflation 37
If inflation increases 38
8. CASH FLOW ANALYSIS 39
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List of Tables
1: Base Case 1 Costed Opportunity in Detached Housing in the South East of England,
0% Inflation, 0% Fuel Inflation, 2010-2035/6 19
2: Base Case 1 Costed Opportunity in Detached Housing in the South East of England,
With 3% Inflation and 9% Fuel Inflation, 2010-2035/6 20
3: Base Case 1 Costed Opportunity in Detached Housing in the South East of England,
With 6% Inflation and 9% Fuel Inflation, 2010-2035/6 21
4: Base Case 2 Costed Opportunity in Detached Housing in the South East of England,
0% Inflation, 0% Fuel Inflation, 2010-2035/6 22
5: Base Case 2 Costed Opportunity in Detached Housing in the South East of England,
0% Inflation, 0% Fuel Inflation, Reduced Day Usage, 2010-2035/6 23
6: Base Case 2 Costed Opportunity in Detached Housing in the South East of England,
With 3% Inflation and 9% Fuel Inflation, 2010-2035/6 24
7: Base Case 2 Costed Opportunity in Detached Housing in the South East of England,
With 6% Inflation and 9% Fuel Inflation, 2010-2035/6 25
8: Costed Opportunity in Semi Detached Housing in the South East of England, 0%
Inflation, 0% Fuel Inflation, 2010-2035/6 26
9: Costed Opportunity in Semi Detached Housing in the South East of England, With 3%
Inflation and 9% Fuel Inflation, 2010-2035/6 27
10: Costed Opportunity in Semi Detached Housing in the South East of England, With 6%
Inflation and 9% Fuel Inflation, 2010-2035/6 28
11: Costed Opportunity for 3.3KW Installations in the South East of England, 0% Inflation,
0% Fuel Inflation, 2010-2035/6 29
12: Costed Opportunity for 3.3KW Installations in the South East of England, With 3% Inflation
and 9% Fuel Inflation, 2010-2035/6 30
13: Costed Opportunity for 3.3KW Installations in the South East of England, With 6% Inflation
and 9% Fuel Inflation, 2010-2035/6 31
14: Costed Opportunity for 3.3KW Installations installed 1/4/12-31/3/13, 0% Inflation, 0% Fuel
Inflation, 2012-2037/8 32
15: Costed Opportunity for 3.3KW Installations installed 1/4/12-31/3/13, 3% Inflation, 9% Fuel Inflation, 2012-2037/8 33
16: Costed Opportunity for 3.3KW Installations installed 1/4/12-31/3/13, 6% Inflation, 9% Fuel Inflation, 2012-2037/8 34
17: Costed Opportunity for 3.3KW Installations installed 1/4/13-31/3/14, 0% Inflation, 0% Fuel Inflation, 2013-2038/9 35
18: Costed Opportunity in Terraced Housing in the South East of England, 0% Inflation, 0% Fuel Inflation, 2010-2035/6 36
19: Costed Opportunity in Terraced Housing in the South East of England, 3% Inflation, 9% Fuel Inflation, 2010-2035/6 37
20: Costed Opportunity in Terraced Housing in the South East of England, 6% Inflation, 9% Fuel Inflation, 2010-2035/6 38
List of Diagrams
No. Title Page
1: Installed Base of PV in Europe, 2005-2009 4
2: Yearly Total of Global Horizontal Irradiation in the UK 6
3: Residential Electricity Consumption, By Activity, 1970-2009 11
4: Residential Electricity Consumption, 2007-2009 12
5: Segmentation of Housing Stock in the South East of England, suitable for PV installation,
2009 13
6: Analysis of the Direction of Roofs in the Detached
Housing Sector in the South East of England, 2009 14
7: Analysis of the Direction of Roofs in the Semi Detached Housing Sector in the
South East of England, 2009 15
8: Analysis of the Direction of Roofs in the Terraced Housing Sector in the
South East of England, 2009 16
9: Cash Flow For A 3.3kw Installation in the South East of England, 2010-2035/6 39
10: Comparison of Cash Flow for 2.59 KW, 3.3 KW and 4 KW Installations in the
South East of England, 2010-2035/6 40 |
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